Andy Burnham signals a direct challenge to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer by planning to contest the Makerfield by-election. Josh Simons steps down from Parliament to clear the path for the Greater Manchester mayor.
Securing Party Approval
Burnham requires endorsement from Labour’s National Executive Committee, which previously denied him a run in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Senior party figures indicate members support his candidacy this time.
Facing Reform UK in a Tight Race
Makerfield, a Labour stronghold since 1983, saw Simons secure victory by 5,399 votes over Reform UK in the 2024 general election. Recent trends show Labour support declining sharply while Reform surges ahead.
In this month’s local elections, Reform UK captured every council ward in the constituency, claiming about half the votes. Labour managed just over a quarter.
Popularity Boost and Expert Analysis
YouGov polls rank Burnham as Britain’s most favored politician, with 35% holding positive views—far ahead of Starmer’s 19% and Wes Streeting’s 12%. Support appears stronger in the North West, bolstered by his mayoral record since 2017.
Wes Streeting describes Burnham as Labour’s strongest contender for the by-election, even as his allies eye a leadership bid.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice assesses Labour’s odds below 5% without Burnham, calling Makerfield one of the closest Labour-Reform battles and tougher than Gorton and Denton.
A Survation survey post-Gorton and Denton by-election projects Burnham drawing 47% for Labour, reducing Greens to 25%.
Challenges from Greens and Costs
The Green Party, securing second place in local elections, claims a historic win in Gorton and Denton with 41% versus Reform’s 29% and Labour’s 25%. It now seeks a Makerfield candidate, risking a split progressive vote.
Local voters may view Burnham’s bid as a launchpad for leadership, a sentiment yet to fully surface. The by-election costs taxpayers up to £226,000, while a Greater Manchester mayoral contest could exceed millions, as the 2024 race hit £4.7 million.
Speaking to BBC Manchester on Friday, Simons called it a “really, really, really tough fight,” adding: “Sometimes in history, when people take risks, and they say, ‘I think this is the right fight to have, but I don’t know if we’re going to win it’, that’s what changes the story. That’s what changes the course of things.”
