In 2022-23, the Utah Jazz have been in a candy spot. They’d entered rebuild mode the earlier summer time, buying and selling Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert (and, famously, Royce O’Neale) for a mixture of draft picks, choose swaps, prospects and rotation gamers. Their 10-3 begin wasn’t sustainable, but it surely shortly turned clear that Lauri Markkanen, the 7-foot sharpshooter they acquired within the Mitchell deal, was rather more than a rotation participant: He averaged 25.6 factors on 64% true capturing, incomes an All-Star look and the Most Improved Participant award. Utah fell out of the playoff race and completed 37-45, however solely after dumping a number of key contributors on the commerce deadline and rolling out some ridiculous lineups down the stretch.
The Jazz’s future appeared shiny as a result of the probabilities appeared infinite. They may hit the gasoline by buying and selling for a star, construct patiently by way of the draft, or do one thing in between. A few years later, although, it is honest to marvel how a lot endurance they’ve left. They’re coming off a 17-65 season wherein Markkanen, now 28 years outdated, averaged 19 factors on 57.1% true capturing whereas being paid 30% of the wage cap. They’ve but to return to phrases on a rookie extension with Walker Kessler, who has been in commerce rumors for just about his complete profession. No one they drafted in 2023 and 2024 (Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski) has established himself as a part of the core. They’ve a brand new workforce president, Austin Ainge, and it is unclear whether or not No. 5 choose Ace Bailey will make him look good or boneheaded. To borrow a metaphor from Sam Hinkie, they’ve planted quite a lot of seeds, however the orchard is way from full bloom.
The State of Play
Final yr: In Yr 3 of its rebuild, Utah did not wait to pile up losses: It was 10-36 on the finish of January, after being 26-26 at that time in Yr 1 and 24-25 in Yr 2. Compared to the late-season Jazz, although, the early-season Jazz have been really superior. From the start of March onward, the workforce received 2 of its 23 video games, with a league-worst web ranking of -14.7. In March, Utah was fined $100,000 for violating the Participant Participation Coverage, however that coverage does not stop groups from benching their finest gamers within the second halves of video games, so the Jazz did simply that. They completed with the worst report within the league, which assured that their draft choose would land no decrease than fifth.
The offseason: They fell as little as they may go within the lottery and chosen Bailey, a 6-foot-7 bucket-getter who had declined to work out with them (and sure different groups). Additionally they traded up from No. 21 to No. 18 to pick Walter Clayton Jr., a 22-year-old level guard who had elevated his inventory by main Florida to the NCAA title. They surprisingly gave up a second-round choose to commerce Collin Sexton for Jusuf Nurkic, however they added three second-round picks by buying and selling John Collins for Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson and absorbing Georges Niang’s contract.
Vegas over/below: 18.5 wins, per BetMGM
The Dialog
Jazz believer: I admit I hoped the Jazz would get Cooper Flagg, however the lottery is the lottery. The second that Austin Ainge mentioned that their “dream state of affairs” going into the draft was touchdown each Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr., I formally moved on (and obtained extraordinarily conversant in Bailey’s highlights). Months later, it is nonetheless loopy to me that Bailey was even accessible. He has extra upside than the three guys drafted immediately forward of him, and star wings stay essentially the most useful archetype within the league. There isn’t any doubt in my thoughts that Will Hardy and the participant improvement employees will get essentially the most out of him. To me, the Jazz are the 2021-22 Thunder: They want a while, however not as a lot time as folks suppose.
Jazz skeptic: Until Cody Williams is about to show into Jalen Williams, you are out of your thoughts. The Jazz have not drafted half in addition to the Thunder — a complete anomaly within the historical past of NBA team-building, by the best way — and Lauri Markkanen will not be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Regardless of all of the dropping, I appreciated watching OKC initially of the Mark Daigneault period, and I really appreciated watching Utah initially of the Hardy period, too. I am unable to say the identical about final yr’s workforce, although. So many horrible turnovers. Such horrible protection. Unhealthy, dangerous, dangerous.
Jazz believer: Did you even watch final yr’s Jazz? Successful clearly wasn’t the precedence, however they have been properly coached and performed laborious, identical to the Thunder did once they have been a lottery workforce. Enjoyable truth: The lineup that Utah used essentially the most (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler) had a plus-7.4 web ranking. The issue is that the lineup solely performed a complete of 196 minutes over 15 video games. Anyway, sufficient about final season. Cody Williams will not be the All-NBA participant that’s brother is, however, primarily based on summer time league, he is already a very completely different — and far stronger — participant than he was as a rookie. I count on Markkanen to bounce again in an enormous manner, I count on Clayton to contribute instantly and I am unable to wait to see how the returning younger gamers have developed over the summer time. Kyle Filipowski dominated summer time league, however Taylor Hendricks is my favourite younger Jazzman; with him and Bailey on the court docket, the Jazz are going to be a lot extra athletic (and enjoyable!) than they’ve ever been.
Jazz skeptic: I like the concept of Hendricks — a 3-and-D man who’s lengthy and athletic sufficient to protect nearly anyone — however he missed just about all of final season and spent portion of his rookie yr within the G League. I counsel you retain your expectations modest for each him and Bailey, the latter of whom ought to clearly be seen as a long-term venture. Actually, the principle motive I am down on the Jazz rebuild is that, the one time they dedicated to the tank, the Basketball Gods punished them. Ainge took an enormous swing on Bailey, and I believe it could be a large whiff. The man has a few of the worst shot choice I’ve ever seen, his ballhandling is suspect, his passing instincts are horrible, his lack of upper-body power presents quite a few issues and he does not compete properly on protection. If Hardy’s employees can flip him right into a profitable participant, they are a bunch of miracle staff. (Additionally, are you certain you need to argue that final yr’s Jazz performed laborious? My favourite quote of the entire season was Hardy describing a 50-point loss in opposition to Dallas: “That was a completely horrendous efficiency from begin to end. That was a masterpiece of dogshit.”)
Jazz believer: That was one sport! He additionally mentioned, “I have not been disenchanted in our workforce fairly often this yr,” however I assume you have to have missed that a part of the quote. Additionally, Bailey is barely even 19 years outdated! I bear in mind folks nitpicking Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards in comparable methods once they have been draft prospects. A few of your criticisms of Rutgers Ace Bailey have benefit, however Utah Ace Bailey is not going to have the identical function. In addition to, you’ll be able to work in your ballhandling, your power and your decision-making. His unbelievable shot-making, his excessive launch level, his confidence and his athleticism are all issues you’ll be able to’t train. Most star scorers have shortcomings on protection at his age, and most cannot fly round and block photographs as a assist defender the best way that he can. In a manner, the Jazz are fortunate that Bailey wasn’t extra of a whole participant in faculty. If he had been, there may be completely no manner they’d have had an opportunity to land somebody this proficient at No. 5.
Jazz skeptic: All I am saying is I would like my franchise cornerstones to do the identical factor that Ainge has pledged to do as workforce president: Make “quite a lot of good selections time and again and over.” I’ve seen nothing that means Bailey is that form of participant, and, to place it kindly, the jury remains to be out on quite a lot of the selections that the Jazz’s entrance workplace made earlier than Ainge’s arrival. Going ahead, I’ve a number of very primary questions on their future: What are the possibilities that certainly one of Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier or Clayton will grow to be a starting-caliber guard? Why is Jusuf Nurkić right here? And the way rather more of that is Markkanen prepared to take?
