2026 NFL Draft: Why Ohio State’s Arvell Reese could go No. 1 total

The 2026 NFL Draft is shaping as much as be a referendum on positional worth, and it is all due to an surprising star from Columbus. It is laborious to come back out of nowhere while you play for Ohio State, however Arvell Reese has made a convincing case for simply that along with his dominant 2025 efficiency.

A real junior who will not flip 21 till subsequent August, Reese performed in six video games in 2023 with out recording a sort out. In 2024, there have been solely flashes — a half-sack and three.5 tackles for loss —  as he served as a cog in a nationwide championship protection that despatched eight gamers to the NFL final spring. 

This season, these flashes grew to become a full-blown breakout reaching a degree of influence that has separated him not solely as probably the greatest gamers in Columbus, however arguably the very best participant in all the draft class.

Once I up to date my 2026 NFL Draft ‘Huge Board’ in mid-November, Reese — who wasn’t even in my high 50 in August — had vaulted to No. 2, trailing solely Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

However this story is not nearly Arvell Reese. It is about whether or not groups ought to cease overthinking the No. 1 decide.

Given the present 2026 NFL Draft order heading into Week 16, the Giants at present maintain the No. 1 decide, and the Titans are sitting at No. 3. Neither group wants a quarterback. Ideally, if both group lands the highest decide, they’d attempt to commerce down and let — take your decide — the Raiders, Browns, Jets, Cardinals or Saints transfer up for Mendoza (and this assumes that Cleveland and New Orleans will not run it again with Shedeur Sanders/Dillon Gabriel or Tyler Shough).

 However there are far worse fates than getting “caught” with Reese. In truth, it does not take a lot creativeness to argue he is the most secure participant in all the class and completely definitely worth the No. 1 decide. He has drawn comparisons to Micah Parsons and Abdul Carter for his freakish athleticism, place flexibility and offense-altering playmaking capacity, all whereas being comparatively new to his position. 

Parsons was the twelfth total decide in 2021, the identical draft that noticed Trevor Lawrence go No. 1. Parsons lasted that lengthy as a result of he opted out of his closing faculty season due to COVID, he was an off-ball linebacker at Penn State, and a few groups had maturity issues about him forward of the draft. Seems, Parsons is a first-overall expertise.

Carter, additionally a Penn State alum, was the No. 3 decide in 2025. And like Parsons, he started his faculty profession as an off-ball linebacker, moved to edge rusher throughout his closing season, and instantly regarded like a pure, dominating with velocity, energy and physicality. If all three gamers have been within the 2026 class, I might have them rated Parsons, Reese and Carter. 

Former Titans GM Ran Carthon, my co-host on the “With the First Choose” NFL Draft podcast, spoke about Reese on a current episode:

“He’ll go very, very early — in all probability just a little sooner than folks understand at this level … [B]ut I will be to see the place somebody performs him as a result of to maximise his capacity, he is loads like Abdul Carter and Micah Parsons by way of his position.

“As a result of each of these guys have been off-ball linebackers at Penn State …  I bear in mind watching [Parsons’] tape and I used to be really studying my report on him this previous summer time by way of me not loving him as an off-ball linebacker as a result of I did not suppose he noticed the triangle nicely sufficient. However he was so quick, so explosive that he might overcome it.  After which I bear in mind simply seeing snaps of him taking part in along with his hand within the filth and making a notice to myself. 

“In all probability the very best factor he does is rush  [the passer]. … However then you definitely go and also you take a look at Abdul Carter, two years of taking part in off-ball. Type of the identical factor. I did not love him as an off-ball linebacker. I did not suppose he made particular performs, so to talk, as the best way we have been speaking about him being a high 5 decide as an off-ball linebacker. And then you definitely transfer him down on the sting and growth! He turns into an actual man. Now, once more, of the three, I feel Arvell Reese is a significantly better off-ball linebacker … but when I am rating all three of them as go rushers, he could be [No. 3].”

So what does historical past inform us about groups that used the highest decide on a non-QB?  Within the 26 drafts since 2000, it is occurred seven occasions.

The 2000 draft class

No. 1 total decide: Penn State DE Courtney Brown to the Browns

Brown performed six seasons, had a career-high six sacks in 2003 and completed his profession with 19 sacks and 36 tackles for loss.

When was the primary QB chosen? Just one quarterback went in Spherical 1: Chad Pennington, to the Jets, 18th total. There was one other QB on this class who labored out (extra on that under), however the Browns had taken Tim Sofa the yr earlier than and weren’t out there for an additional face of the franchise.

Was it the suitable selection? Nope. Not even shut.  On a scale of 1-10, the place 10 is Myles Garrett … nicely, 1 is Courtney Brown. Sure, it is easy accountable the Browns for being the Browns, it is also a reminder that the draft is a crap shoot and this was an instance of Cleveland getting it precisely incorrect. Extra affirmation of that actuality? 

With the hindsight of a quarter-century, let’s take a look at the very best gamers from the 2000 class, based mostly on Professional-Soccer-Reference’s approximate worth metric which lets you “very roughly” (of their phrases) to check gamers throughout years and positions.

Tom Brady (R6)
Brian Urlacher (HOF, R1)
John Abraham (R1)
Keith Bulluck (R1)
Brad Meester (R2)
Chad Clifton (R2)
Plaxico Burress (R1)
Shaun Ellis (R1)
Jamal Lewis (R1)
Julian Peterson (R1)
Shaun Alexander (R1)
Laveranues Coles (R3)
Adalius Thomas (R6)
Chris Samuels (R1)

The 2006 draft class

No. 1 total decide: NC State DE Mario Williams to the Texans

Williams, who measured 6-foot-7, 295 lbs. on the mix, performed 11 seasons with the Texans, Payments and Dolphins, had double-digit sacks 5 totally different occasions, together with 14 sacks in his second season and 12 sacks in his third season. He completed his profession with 97.5 sacks. 

When was the primary QB chosen? Vince Younger went No. 3 total, Matt Leinart went tenth and Jay Cutler went eleventh.  

Was it the suitable selection? On the Courtney Brown-to-Myles Garrett scale described above, I might put Williams at a 7.5. The Texans drafted David Carr with the highest decide in 2002 and he began 16 video games in ’06, however the group moved on from him after the season and turned to Matt Schaub. I point out this as a result of the Texans might have focused Cutler, who ended up being the very best QB on this class, with the primary decide, however Williams turned out to be a stable — and sometimes spectacular — participant. The actual drama main as much as this draft wasn’t if the Texans would take a QB, however whether or not they would goal USC’s Reggie Bush. Bush ended up going No. 2 to the Saints, and his NFL profession did not strategy that of Williams’. 

Listed below are the very best gamers from the 2006 class, in accordance with PFR’s AV metric:

Jahri Evans (R4)
Haloti Ngata (R1)
Andrew Whitworth (R2)
Jay Cutler (R1)
Brandon Marshall (R4)
Mario Williams (R1)
Kyle Williams (R5)
Tamba Hali (R1)
Maurice Jones-Drew (R2)
Nick Mangold (R1)
Marques Colston (R7)

The 2007 draft class

No. 1 total decide: Michigan OT Jake Lengthy to the Dolphins

Govt Vice President of Soccer Operations Invoice Parcells was in his first yr on the job and the group reportedly was additionally eager about Matt Ryan to stem a long term of pedestrian QB play in Miami. Finally the Dolphins settled on Lengthy, who performed 9 seasons, was a four-time Professional Bowler his first 4 seasons, and was a first-team All Professional in 2010. In truth, he began 61 consecutive video games earlier than he was positioned on injured reserve through the 2011 season. He later suffered ACL accidents in 2013 and 2014.

When was the primary QB chosen? Matt Ryan went No. 3 total to the Falcons. The Ravens took Joe Flacco 10 picks later. Each QBs ended up as two of the highest gamers from the ’08 class.

Was it the suitable selection? On the Courtney Brown-to-Myles Garrett scale described above, I might put Lengthy at a 7.0. Parcells needed to construct the group via the trenches and Lengthy match that description. And whereas he proved to be a stable selection earlier than the accidents reduce brief his profession, passing on Ryan is a tricky tablet to swallow for a franchise that’s nonetheless on the seek for its subsequent franchise quarterback.

Listed below are the very best gamers from the 2008 class, in accordance with PFR’s AV metric:

Matt Ryan (R1)
Calais Campbell (R2)
Joe Flacco (R1)
Duane Brown (R1)
Matt Forte (R2)
Josh Sitton (R4)
DeSean Jackson (R2)
Jordy Nelson (R2)
Chris Johnson (R1)
Aqib Talib (R1)
Jamaal Charles (R3)
Ryan Clady (R1)
Ray Rice (R2)
Jake Lengthy (R1)

The 2013 draft class

No. 1 total decide: Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher to the Chiefs. On the time, this was thought-about one of many weakest draft lessons in current reminiscence. The Chiefs reportedly tried to commerce down, however as a result of the category lacked a Mario Williams or perhaps a Jake Lengthy — and definitely no QB price shifting up for — the group stayed put and needed to resolve between Fisher and Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel, who ended up going No. 2 to the Jaguars. Fisher performed 9 seasons (eight in Kansas Metropolis, one in Indy), made two Professional Bowls, together with his closing yr with the Chiefs, served as Patrick Mahomes’ blindside protector from 2018-20 and gained Tremendous Bowl LIV with the group. The group thought sufficient of Fisher to choose up his fifth-year choice and provides him a second contract. And he was for positive the suitable name over Joeckel, who busted in Jacksonville. 

When was the primary QB chosen? The Payments took EJ Manuel No. 16 total, and he was the one first-round quarterback within the class. The following three QBs off the board? Geno Smith in Spherical 2, Mike Glennon in Spherical 3 and Matt Barkley in Spherical 4.

Was it the suitable selection? On the Courtney Brown-to-Myles Garrett scale described above, I might put Fisher at a 6.0. Andy Reid had simply been employed, the group had traded for Alex Smith and so they have been seeking to rebuild the offensive line. On condition that, and the dearth of curiosity from different groups eager to commerce up, taking Fisher is not controversial. Not except you get your fingers on a time machine and peek at the very best gamers from the 2013 class, in accordance with PFR’s AV metric:

Travis Kelce (R3)
Lane Johnson (R1)
David Bakhtiari (R4)
DeAndre Hopkins (R1)
Keenan Allen (R3)
Tyrann Mathieu (R3)
Terron Armstead (R3)
Darius Slay (R2)
Eric Fisher (R1)
Sheldon Richardson (R1)
Le’Veon Bell (R2) 

For as dangerous because the 2013 class was within the second, it seems to be loads higher 12 years later. Kelce and Johnson are Corridor of Famers, and there are 5 names taken in Spherical 3 or later that will’ve been revisionist home-run first-overall decisions. The lesson: we have heard related rumblings concerning the 2026 class, and I might advocate simply giving it time to play out.

The 2014 draft class

No. 1 total decide: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney to the Texans. Invoice O’Brien was the coach on the time, and whereas Houston desperately wanted a QB, this was one other weak class. Clowney was thought-about the very best participant within the class, and the concept of placing him on the identical line of defense as JJ Watt made the choice even simpler. 

Clowney, nonetheless simply 32 years previous, is in his twelfth NFL season. He is performed for the Texans, Seahawks, Titans, Browns, Ravens, Panthers and now the Cowboys. He had 29 sacks in 5 seasons with the Texans, and has 62 profession sacks via 15 weeks of the 2025 season.

When was the primary QB chosen? Blake Bortles went No. 3 total to the Jaguars. Two different QBs went within the first spherical: Johnny Manziel to the Browns (No. 22) and Teddy Bridgewater to the Vikings (No. 32). The very best QB on this class did not hear his identify known as till Spherical 2 (extra on that momentarily).

Was it the suitable selection? On the Courtney Brown-to-Myles Garrett scale described above, I might put Clowney at a 5.5. He was a straightforward selection on the time, however by no means fairly lived as much as the lofty first-overall expectations. Nonetheless, a stable participant who’s had a protracted profession.

Listed below are the very best gamers from the 2014 class, in accordance with PFR’s AV metric:

Aaron Donald (R1)
Zack Martin (R1)
Khalil Mack (R1)
Derek Carr (R2)
Davante Adams (R1)
C.J. Mosley (R1)
Mike Evans (R1)
Joel Bitonio (R2)
Jake Matthews (R1)
Brandin Cooks (R1)
DeMarcus Lawrence (R2)
Corey Linsley (R5)
Jadeveon Clowney (R1)
Odell Beckham Jr. (R1)
Kyle Van Noy (R2)

Donald lasted till the center of the primary spherical as a result of he was deemed undersized, and Mack went fifth total, partly, as a result of he was a small(-ish) college participant. The lesson: it is easy to overthink it — strive to not fall into that entice.

The 2017 draft class

No. 1 total decide: Texas A&M EDGE Myles Garrett to the Browns. He was the very best participant on this class. 9 seasons later, he not solely stays the very best participant on this class, he is the very best non-QB within the NFL. 

The Browns wanted a quarterback heading into the 2017 season (Cody Kessler, Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown all began video games for Cleveland in ’16), however they’d three first-round picks and a second-rounder to search out one. The group selected to not commerce up for Patrick Mahomes (tenth total) or Deshaun Watson (twelfth total), and as a substitute took security Jabrill Peppers at No. 25 and TE David Njoku at No. 29. They ended up getting QB DeShone Kizer with the 52nd decide in Spherical 2. Kizer began 15 video games in 2017 (the group went 0-15 in these video games on their approach to an 0-16 report for the season). Kizer by no means began one other sport within the NFL.

When was the primary QB chosen? Mitch Trubisky, who made simply 13 profession begins in faculty, went No. 2 total to the Bears, forward of Mahomes and Watson in Spherical 1.

Was it the suitable selection? On the Courtney Brown-to-Myles Garrett scale described above, I might put Garrett at 10, written in everlasting marker with an adjoining plaque that acknowledges this decide as one of many biggest selections in Browns historical past. Now simply think about if they’d drafted T.J. Watt or Dion Dawkins or Cooper Kupp or George Kittle with their two different first-round picks …

Listed below are the very best gamers from the 2017 class, in accordance with PFR’s AV metric: Patrick Mahomes (R1)
Myles Garrett (R1)
T.J. Watt (R1)
Alvin Kamara (R3)
Christian McCaffrey (R1)
Dion Dawkins (R2)
Ryan Ramczyk (R1)
Aaron Jones (R5)
Cooper Kupp (R3)
Deshaun Watson (R1)
Marlon Humphrey (R1)
Budda Baker (R2)
George Kittle (R5)
Joe Mixon (R2)
Trey Hendrickson (R3)
Matt Milano (R5)

The 2022 draft class

No. 1 total decide: Georgia EDGE Trevon Walker to the Jaguars

In 2021, the Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 decide. A yr later, they once more have been choosing first total. I bear in mind speaking with somebody within the group on the 2022 Senior Bowl and so they have been hoping that Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder or Sam Howell would have a powerful sufficient week to persuade any individual to maneuver up for them. It did not occur, and Jacksonville stayed put and took a high-upside edge rusher in Walker, one decide forward of Aidan Hutchinson.

When was the primary QB chosen? Pickett was the one quarterback to go within the first spherical, and the subsequent QB — Desmond Ridder — did not come off the board till Spherical 3.

Was it the suitable selection? On the Courtney Brown-to-Myles Garrett scale described above, I might put Walker at a 5.0. On the time, the decide was questioned. Partly as a result of former GM Trent Baalke was behind the choice, and he was on the level in his journey the place he might do no proper within the eyes of Jags followers. But additionally as a result of Walker, whereas bodily imposing, was extra projection than positive factor, even by NFL Draft requirements. These issues have been amplified after a rookie season during which he managed simply 3.5 sacks in comparison with Hutchinson’s 9.5-sack rookie marketing campaign for the Lions.

However Walker logged 10 sacks in 2023 and 10.5 sacks in 2024 (he has simply 2.5 sacks in ’25 after being sidelined by accidents). In the meantime, Hutchinson had 11.5 in ’23 and seven.5 in ’24 (earlier than being misplaced for the yr to a leg damage after 6 video games); he has 8.5 sacks via 15 weeks of the ’25 season. Walker is simply in Yr 4, and as soon as wholesome I might anticipate him to proceed to get higher and his numbers will mirror as a lot. However given he is missed time this season with an damage, and he is nonetheless early into his profession, I’ve him rated as a 5.0 … for now.

Listed below are the very best gamers from the 2022 class, in accordance with PFR’s AV metric:

Brock Purdy (R7)
Sauce Gardner (R1)
Trent McDuffie (R1)
James Prepare dinner (R2)
Drake London (R1)
Tyler Smith (R1)
Tyler Linderbaum (R1)
Garrett Wilson (R1)
George Pickens (R2)
Kerby Joseph (R3)
Charles Cross (R1)
Kyle Hamilton (R1)
Cordell Volson (R4)
Travon Walker (R1)
Derek Stingley Jr. (R1)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (R1)
Nik Bonitto (R2)
Rachaad White (R3)
Aidan Hutchinson (R1)
Chris Olave (R1)

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So what is the overarching takeaway? It is likely to be instructive to additionally take a look at the 19 quarterbacks taken No. 1 total this century and ask if these selections have been price it or reaches — each within the second and now. 

QBs who went No. 1 total this century

2025	Cam Ward	2011	Cam Newton
2024	Caleb Williams	2010	Sam Bradford
2023	Bryce Younger	2009	Matthew Stafford
2021	Trevor Lawrence	2007	JaMarcus Russell
2020	Joe Burrow	2005	Alex Smith
2019	Kyler Murray	2004	Eli Manning
2018	Baker Mayfield	2003	Carson Palmer
2016	Jared Goff	2002	David Carr
2015	Jameis Winston	2001	Michael Vick
2012	Andrew Luck

• The jury remains to be out on Cam Ward, although I have been inspired by what he is proven below some fairly dire circumstances in Tennessee as a rookie. Caleb Williams is proof you can have all of the expertise on this planet, however that expertise needs to be harnessed, each in his play-to-play resolution making, but additionally by pairing him with a play-caller like Ben Johnson. 
• Bryce Younger seems to be “the man” in Yr 3, nevertheless it was contact and go throughout his rookie season. Once more, the teaching employees did him no favors, and he’ll perpetually — truthful or not — be dwelling as much as the expectations of what it price the Panthers to maneuver up and choose him in 2023. 
• Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent for a lot of his profession, however he is additionally performed for 3 coaches. Liam Coen could possibly be the one who unlocks all of it. The Jags additionally signed Lawrence to an enormous deal after the 2024 season, so that they’re clearly all in. The decide was, and is, a no brainer. Joe Burrow felt like he was on tempo to be probably the greatest QBs in league historical past, however accidents have plagued him lately. That mentioned, for all the explanations to query the Bengals, taking Burrow is not certainly one of them.
• I get why the Cardinals have been intrigued by Kyler Murray, even 12 months after utilizing a first-round decide on Josh Rosen, however he is doubtless taken his final snap in Arizona. On reflection, Nick Bosa and Quinnen Williams, chosen No. 2 and No. 3 in that 2019 draft, would have been higher decisions.  
• Baker Mayfield flashed No. 1 total capacity in Cleveland, however he did not hit his stride till he landed in Tampa Bay just a few seasons in the past. Sure, Josh Allen was additionally on this class, however nobody (presumably even Josh Allen) knew what he would grow to be. Mayfield wasn’t a attain on the time, or when trying again on the ’18 class.
• Jared Goff, like Mayfield, flashed early in his profession however did not grow to be one of many league’s finest passers till he was traded. He is a No. 1 total expertise, even in a draft class with Tyreek Hill and Dak Prescott (two Day 3 picks, due to off-field issues on the time). 
• Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went Nos. 1 and a couple of within the 2015 draft. Neither labored out as long-term franchise QBs, however each have made a dwelling nearly as good backups. If you happen to’re re-drafting that class, Winston (or Mariota) would nonetheless have likelihood to nonetheless go first total; the leaders in PFR’s AV from 2015 are Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper.
• Andrew Luck is the unique Joe Burrow; a particular expertise sidetracked by accidents. 
• Cam Newton turned across the Panthers franchise, incomes league MVP honors in 2015, whereas additionally getting Carolina to the Tremendous Bowl. 
• Sam Bradford was additionally a sufferer of accidents, and for nearly as good as he was, I suppose you possibly can make the case that Ndamukong Suh or Trent Williams could be worthy of the No. 1 decide from the 2010 class.
• Matthew Stafford is a no brainer. 
• Jamarcus Russell is a no brainer for the precise reverse causes; Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas — each Corridor of Famers — have been picked Nos. 2 and No. 3. In truth, Patrick Willis and Darrelle Revis, additionally first-rounders in 2007, have been enshrined into the Corridor of Fame.
• Alex Smith was a stable participant, however Aaron Rodgers is the very best participant within the 2005 class, adopted by Corridor of Famer DeMarcus Ware. I am not going to fault the Chargers (er, Giants) for taking Eli Manning in ’04 — the person gained two Tremendous Bowls — or the Bengals taking Carson Palmer the yr earlier than. He, like Burrow, turned across the franchise earlier than he suffered a critical knee damage.
• Lastly, the Texans have been a brand-new franchise and wanted a quarterback. David Carr, Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey have been the three QBs to go within the first spherical in 2002. Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney and Ed Reed would have been higher picks (all Corridor of Famers), however none performed quarterback, so I get it. Michael Vick was Cam Newton or Josh Allen however in a 6-foot-1 package deal. There have been three Corridor of Famers within the 2001 class — LaDanian Tomlinson, Richard Seymour and Steve Hutchinson — and Drew Brees will be a part of the membership quickly sufficient, however Vick was certainly one of one. 

Historical past reveals that quarterbacks at No. 1 can work — and fail — for causes which have little to do with draft slot. Which is why, if Arvell Reese is actually the very best participant within the 2026 class, the most secure decide may also be the only one.