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The Fiesta Bowl between the Ducks and the Hoosiers will be an interesting contest to watch and to wager on.
We’re getting the rematch of an October regular-season game that saw Indiana defeat Oregon 30-20 in Autzen Stadium. Now we get to see how the two match up three months later.
Indiana has yet to lose this season, securing the Big Ten title with a win against Ohio State. The Hoosiers then dispatched Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon, on the other hand, did not lose a game after Indiana and is 2-0 in the postseason. The Ducks beat James Madison 51-34, then took down Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl.
However, this game feels like an Under game for multiple reasons.
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The first is that Oregon’s offense has struggled to score and has struggled to be efficient against the four best defenses it has faced all season, which includes Indiana. The Ducks scored 17 points in regulation at Penn State, they scored just 13 offensive points against the Hoosiers, 18 against Iowa, and then just 23 (including a touchdown with under a minute left) against Texas Tech.
The Oregon offense leans toward rushing the ball, completing short passes and taking its time against better defenses. It also has concerns at both tackle positions, which leads to negative plays. And while Indiana does not have the best individual pass rush, as a group, the Hoosiers get after the quarterback.
Against this Indiana defense, Oregon will have to run the ball between 35 and 40 times to have success. Indiana does not allow explosive plays and the Hoosiers play a ton of zone. Oregon’s passing game has struggled at times this season against these types of defense, as we saw in the first game against Indiana. But where the Ducks did not struggle was in the run game. Just don’t look at the overall rushing stats because those include quarterback sacks.
Oregon’s running backs had 20 carries for 101 yards against Indiana in the first matchup. Indiana is down its best defensive tackle, who injured himself in the Big Ten title game. The Hoosiers are also without Kellan Wyatt, who had 1.5 sacks against Oregon. He’s been out for the back half of the season.
Despite the final tally showing 30 for Indiana in the first game, the offense did not have a ton of yards.
If you remove the final drive of the game, where Indiana was taking kneel downs, the Hoosiers gained 343 yards, which is right around their average against the three other defenses that are ranked around Oregon. They racked up 337 yards against Iowa, 326 against Penn State and 340 against Ohio State. In those games, Indiana scored 20, 27 and 13, respectively, which is far lower than the normal output.
Also, that 27 against Penn State included a fantastic two-minute drive to end the game with a touchdown.
Indiana’s offense is fantastic, efficient and physical, but it’s not complicated. The Hoosiers just execute at the highest level with a quarterback who makes all the throws. Fernando Mendoza is also able to scramble to extend drives.
Oregon’s defense has improved this season and does not allow explosive plays. Indiana’s three touchdown drives against Oregon in the first game were nine-, nine- and 12-play drives. That is how teams score against the Ducks.
With all that said, I think this game is low scoring. Give me the Under.
PICK: Under 46.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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