As the Victorian state election approaches on November 28, a recent Resolve poll indicates the Coalition is maintaining a significant lead over the Labor party. While Labor appears likely to face electoral defeat, it remains uncertain whether the Coalition will secure a majority government or require support from One Nation. Meanwhile, federal polling data presents a more varied picture, with differing results from Resolve and Morgan polls.
Victorian State Election Polling
The Resolve poll, conducted between September 6-12 with a sample of 1,000 voters, shows the Coalition with 28% of the primary vote, a one-point increase since mid-August. Labor’s primary vote remained steady at 25%, while One Nation also held at 23%. The Greens polled 12% (steady), independents garnered 8% (up one point), and other parties accounted for 5% (down one point). No two-party preferred estimate was provided in this specific poll. However, based on the primary vote trends and assuming previous preference flows, the Coalition is likely still leading Labor by a margin similar to the 53-47 split observed in August.
This poll is part of an ongoing series tracking sentiment leading up to the November election. Resolve is noted as the only pollster to have released a second poll since late July, a period that saw Ben Carroll replace Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier. The data tracks Labor’s two-party share and the midpoint fieldwork dates for each poll, with lines connecting polls from the same polling organization to illustrate trends.
Preferred Premier in Victoria
In a separate question regarding preferred premier, Liberal candidate Jess Wilson saw her support rise to 28% (up two points). Incumbent Premier Ben Carroll remained steady at 20%, and One Nation’s state leader, Warren Pickering, saw a two-point decrease to 8%.
Key Policy Issues in Victoria
The poll also gauged public opinion on major infrastructure and health initiatives. A significant majority, 49% to 27%, believe the proposed Suburban Rail Loop is not worth incurring debt for. Similarly, 41% of respondents felt that Labor’s plan for publicly funded dental care, if re-elected, was not a justifiable reason to go into debt, with 35% disagreeing.
Federal Polling Insights
National polling data offers a contrasting view of the political landscape. A federal Resolve poll, surveying 2,250 people from September 6-12, indicated a different distribution of primary support. Labor’s primary vote was steady at 28%. One Nation saw a one-point increase to 27%, and the Coalition also gained one point to 24%. The Greens polled 11% (down one point), independents 6% (down one point), and others 3% (down one point).
While a two-party preferred estimate was not directly provided, applying projected 2025 election preference flows to these primary votes suggests a narrow lead for Labor over the Coalition, approximately 50.5% to 49.5%. This indicates a tighter contest at the federal level compared to the Victorian state polling.
Federal Leader and Policy Approval
Regarding leader approval, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating dipped by one point to -18, with 53% rating his performance as poor and 35% as good. In contrast, Angus Taylor’s net approval rose to +9 (39% good, 30% poor), and Pauline Hanson’s net approval increased by five points to +10 (47% good, 37% poor).
In a three-way preferred prime minister question, Albanese received 29% (down three points), Hanson garnered 25% (down one point), and Taylor secured 21% (up two points).
Economic and Immigration Stances
On the issue of national debt and deficits, 48% of respondents favored cutting spending, while 10% preferred raising taxes, and 42% opted for an equal balance between the two. Public sentiment on housing prices shows a strong desire for them to decrease, with 59% supporting this (down slightly from 60% in August).
Immigration remains a key concern, with 40% of those polled believing Labor’s current net overseas migration target of 225,000 is too high. This target represents a reduction from the approximately 300,000 recorded last year. Thirty-two percent considered the target appropriate, and 11% felt it was too low. When asked which party was best equipped to handle immigration, One Nation was favored by 31% of respondents, followed by Labor (24%), the Coalition (19%), and others (5%).
Morgan Poll Contrasts
A separate national Morgan poll, conducted from September 7-13 with a sample of 1,583, presented different figures. Labor’s primary vote was recorded at 25% (down two points from early September), and One Nation at 25% (down 1.5 points). The Coalition stood at 21% (steady), and the Greens reached a new term high of 16% (up 1.5 points), with all other parties at 12.5% (up two points). Analysts note that Morgan polls may sometimes overstate Green support compared to other polling firms.
In terms of preferred voting, Morgan’s data showed Labor leading One Nation 54.5% to 45.5% (a one-point gain for Labor) and Labor leading the Coalition 55% to 45% (a two-point gain for Labor). When applying 2025 election preference flows, Labor held a 53% to 47% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point increase for Labor.
Recent Byelections
Western Australia: Secret Harbour
The final results from the August 29 Western Australian state byelection in Secret Harbour confirm a significant win for One Nation, who defeated Labor by 57.2% to 42.8% after preferences. This outcome contrasts with the 2025 state election results for this seat, where Labor had previously won with 61.5% against the Liberals’ 38.5%.
Primary votes in the byelection showed One Nation securing 39.1% (a substantial increase of 30.7 percentage points), Labor receiving 24.1% (down 22.4 points), the Liberals 17.2% (down 7.8 points), the Greens 7.8% (down 1.1 points), and Legalise Cannabis 3.7% (down 2.1 points).
The preference distribution revealed that Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation over Labor by a margin of 59.2% to 40.8%. While this indicates a strong preference for One Nation among former Liberal voters, the overall shift suggests that One Nation could potentially gain seats if primary vote margins between them and Labor were narrower.
Northern Territory: Mulka
In the Northern Territory, Labor secured an easy victory in the Mulka seat byelection held last Saturday. Following the resignation of independent member Yingiya Mark Guyula, Labor defeated an independent candidate with 77.6% of the vote compared to 22.4%. This win brings Labor’s total seats in the NT legislature to six, out of 25. The governing Country Liberal Party (CLP) holds 17 seats.
Notably, at the 2024 NT election, the independent member Guyula had won the seat with 75.2% against the CLP’s 24.8%, with Labor not contesting that election. In 2020, Guyula had previously defeated Labor by 55.1% to 44.9%. The Mulka electorate has a significant Indigenous population, often associated with lower voter turnout, which was recorded at 36% for this byelection.
This marks Labor’s second seat gain in a byelection this term in the Northern Territory, having previously won the seat of Nightcliff from the Greens in March.
Conclusion
The latest polling data reveals a divided political landscape. In Victoria, the Coalition appears to be in a strong position ahead of the state election, while federal polls suggest a more competitive environment with varying levels of support for Labor, the Coalition, and minor parties. The recent byelections also highlight shifts in voter allegiances, particularly the strong performance of One Nation in Western Australia and Labor’s gains in the Northern Territory.
