Chilly US Temps Spark Fund Shopping for of Nat-Gasoline Futures

January Nymex pure gasoline (NGF26) on Wednesday closed up by +0.155 (+3.20%).

Jan nat-gas costs rallied sharply on Wednesday and posted an almost 3-year nearest-futures excessive.   Climate forecasts of colder-than-normal climate within the US, which can enhance nat-gas heating demand, have sparked fund shopping for of nat-gas futures on Wednesday.   Forecaster Atmospheric G2 stated below-normal temperatures within the Northeast and Nice Lakes will final by way of the tip of this week and return after the center of the month.  Nat-gas costs added to their positive factors Wednesday on technical shopping for after costs rose above $5.00 per million British thermal models.

US (lower-48) dry gasoline manufacturing on Wednesday was 112.0 bcf/day (+6.4% y/y), in response to BNEF.  Decrease-48 state gasoline demand on Wednesday was 113.1 bcf/day (+2.6% y/y), in response to BNEF.  Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday had been 17.5 bcf/day (-4.9% w/w), in response to BNEF.

As a supportive issue for gasoline costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported on Wednesday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended November 29 rose +2.11% y/y to 76,459 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending November 29 rose +2.99% y/y to 4,289,746 GWh.

Larger US nat-gas manufacturing is a bearish issue for costs.  On November 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day from September’s estimate of 106.60 bcf/day.  US nat-gas manufacturing is at the moment close to a document excessive, with energetic US nat-gas rigs lately posting a 2-year excessive.

The consensus is that Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventories will decline by -18 bcf for the week ended November 28.

Final Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas costs, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 21 fell by -11 bcf, a bigger draw than the market consensus of -9 bcf however lower than the 5-year weekly common of a -25 bcf draw.  As of November 21, nat-gas inventories had been down -0.8% y/y and had been +4.2% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling enough nat-gas provides.  As of December 1, gasoline storage in Europe was 75% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 85% full for this time of yr.

Baker Hughes reported final Wednesday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending November 28 rose by +3 to 130 rigs, a 2.25-year excessive.  Previously yr, the variety of gasoline rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially printed on Barchart.com